Taliban 2.0 — Strategic Supremacy of Taliban and its Implications
August 2021 is witnessing the greatest geopolitical humiliation of the 21st century. The collection of multiple superpowers has given it up on Afghanistan and the Taliban; the Taliban’s dominance is more than just “fortune” favoring the “brave”. The article will put forward the tactical underlying of the Taliban, as just not an extremist group but also as an established Politburo. Taliban’s well-structured power center with a non-static presence provides it strategic advantages. On three terms, does the Taliban outplays its western rivals and domestic cynics. Firstly, the Taliban adapts to changes very quickly. Secondly, it is better organized than other political Islamic groups. Lastly, it gets extended moral and material support from within and outside of Afghanistan.
Tactical Supremacy
A lot has been written already on the Taliban’s tactics on a warfare basis, such as hideouts in valleys and the use of intimidation as a tactic to subjugate the domestic population. But the Taliban isn’t your average extremist group. Taliban has its tactical wing outstretched to the diplomatic breadth and its roots deep into the domestic depth. Taliban engages in diplomatic talks for an extended period since it understands that it has to reach beyond its domestic boundaries to justify itself as a functioning state unit. An extended arm means that if it is “open for talks,” one cannot bomb them simultaneously. This tactic avoids mass annihilations that many other terrorist groups have succumbed to. It also keeps the hope alive in the western bloc of it being an actual functioning governmental unit. New Taliban has clearly learned from the mistakes of the old Taliban.
Giving formidable freedom for women to participate in economic activities and letting girls attend schools is also an ingenious PR ploy. A less furor from western media owing to the Taliban’s “liberal” tactics means fewer chances of external interventions. Taliban may also be aware of the fact that the Trump administration was too reactive to geopolitics; President Biden, on the other hand, prefers the “wait and go” play and may not succumb to the growing media criticism of his hasty move. Biden has lived through the 2008 financial crisis-era as a Vice President, and he would expect this storm to pass away as soon as possible. He’d prefer to wait it out in the cold happily. With negligible chances of US intervention, other powers would also avoid a direct confrontation with the Taliban’s policies. Any forms of local dissent would be suppressed with media regulation and target killings. This means the Taliban’s tact of selling itself as a “just” government body would eventually sell to the domestic and broader population, at least for the next few years.
Organizational Advantage
Several other extremist groups such as ISIS, mostly rely on bloodshed and violence and function as a vertical hierarchy, with generally one influential person making the calls. Taliban, on the other hand, has developed a horizontal hierarchy as well. Taliban has its diplomatic wing engaging in Doha Talks, religious wing encouraging the domestic population to adhere to an Islamic way of life, military wing engaging on warfare front, has media wing with a formal spokesperson, who openly laments through its official Twitter account and has locals working as eyes on the ground for them.
Taliban now also understands the power of the internet, and unlike previously, when head-chopping videos were of a daily occurrence, this time they are making it seem that they have had an “overhaul” of life ethics. With multiple visits to Qatar, Russia, and China, it successfully sells the idea of Afghanistan being open for geo-economical outreach. Taliban has a newly formed special forces group Al Badr specific for military purposes, just like a proper nation-state. This re-emerged Taliban has understood the conundrums of geopolitics and is determined to sell the concept of “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” as any other nation-state. It justifies it with the specified territory, permanent population, a functioning government, and a formidable capacity to engage other nations in geopolitical relationships.
Moral and Material Support
Taliban has a sense of awareness that this is the perfect time to play their trump cards well. For two reasons, the Biden administration has a passive outlook towards Afghan’s problems. He is determined to get Americans out of this swamp of misery at any cost. The Taliban sensed this sign of desperation well, and they know that their adversary has run out of patience. Without American leadership, other powers would keep at bay as well. Secondly, the world is busy dealing with the Covid turmoil, and barely anyone has begun to return to the normalcy of life. When economies are suffering poorly, states will avoid getting into a bigger mess by all means.
On objective terms, the Taliban has a well-trained militia with state-of-the-art weapons, trucks, anti-aircraft artillery, satellite communication systems, etc. Befriending Pakistan, Russia and China have benefited the Taliban on such terms evidently. Befriending China means a humungous infrastructure loan is on the way to greet them. China would happily eye the trillion-dollar treasure Afghanistan is sitting on, and would be more than happy to help the Taliban on transactional terms. Taliban since long had its network of wealth generation going on for decades, owing to its opium trade network. By no means it has any shortage of wealth, which became evident when the Taliban quickly enticed unpaid Afghan soldiers to give up the fight.
Conclusion
International security analysts have already claimed in numbers, of how there cannot be a military solution in Afghanistan. The aforementioned facts envisage that the Taliban isn’t your average terrorist group. The concerned parties must stop treating it like one. Taliban is and always has been two steps ahead of everyone. Taliban’s hastened takeover is due to its well-planned structural outlays and its proficient functioning. Similar to as in Game of Thrones, killing the Knight King won’t kill the White-walkers; likewise, killing Taliban leaders won’t end the Taliban altogether.
Twenty years is quite a long time for the western bloc to learn from its mistakes. If once is a mistake and twice is foolishness, then the third time of such a misadventure by the Americans (after British and Soviets) is utter foolishness. It only adds to the fallacious omen of Afghanistan being the “Graveyard of Empires.” The truth of the matter is that anyone who treats the Taliban as just any other terrorist group is undoubtedly digging a grave for itself in this graveyard.
